Archive for August, 2008

WATCH SALES VOLUME!

August 19, 2008

Here’s an article from the AP about how prices are down in Southern California, but sales volume is spiking.

I have long said to keep a close eye on sales volume and unsold inventory, IGNORE median home price measures….why?

If you allow me to take the liberty to mix anecdotal evidence with cold hard data, here’s why:

First of all, will you agree with me, if you are flipping houses, that you don’t care if the market is up or down as long as you can accurately predict how much you can sell it for and roughly how long it will take? (humor me and say “yes”).  If you went through what we as flippers or agents went through, you know that the misery started in 2005. 

ALL the papers and reports said that median home price were still going up, which sounded great as long as you weren’t actually trying to sell a house!  Sales volume was as if someone slammed on the brakes, and unsold inventory started to skyrocket by the end of 2005.  The pain began then.

What were the headlines?  I remember them well, “Price increases slow to single digit growth”. 

…that was the most laughable headline, they were lamenting that things weren’t going up as fast when the reality was that the market was crashing in front of our eyes!….but that fixation with median home prices gave a false sense of security.

….What exactly is median home price? 

Put all the houses that sold in order from cheapest to most expensive.  Now, divide the list in half and take the middle one.  That’s it!  Do you see some flaws here? 

What if in 2004 the house in the exact middle is a 1,400 square foot 3 bed 2 bath that sells for $300,000, and 3 years later the median price remains at $300,000?…would that mean the market is flat??

Let’s go a little deeper- what they aren’t telling you is that now the same $300,000 is buying a 2,800 square foot 2004 house with a pool!!  The second case scenario means homes are going for half of what they were!

Median home prices, I believe strongly, is therefore a lagging indicator whereas unsold inventory and sales volume is a coincident indicator. 

Here is another reason it takes so long to reflect reality- as the market dies, homeowners are completely in the dark that they have NO chance of getting what their neighbor got 3-4 months ago…they stubbornly hold on and basically nothing is sells…..Now, occcccccasionnnnally, someone in hurry to get a house will pay that price, but they are very few and far between, so median price again looks okay, but again, it is dying a violent death behind the surface. 

THIS IS KEY…It literally takes almost 12 months for homeowners to get that point that homes aren’t selling!!  So the median home price stays artificially high when the reality is that very few homes are selling, and the few that do sell are overpriced, bought by motivated buyers (the numbers of which are shrinking fast!)…the people who have their homes for sale finally start to get the point after 6 or 7 months go by, they do 4 or 5 price drops, and no one is even nibbling!…but again, since no one is buying the median price indicator doesn’t yet know that prices have fell because no one’s buying!  <okay surely I will get an award for beating that horse to death>, now for the anecdotal part, in fact, you can find your own anecdote!

I challenge you, go find a veteran real estate investor (Southern California) and ask them what their toughest year was.  I will place a wager that besides 2006 and 2007 they will say 1990 or 1991.  Try it! 

…so, let’s look at what happened then- in 1989 median home prices were still going up, but sales volume came to an abrupt halt, and unsold inventory started to climb, just like 2005.  In both years the market remained “hopefully optimistic”…until 1990, 1991, and 1992 promptly beat the tar out of all signs of hopeful optimism just like 2006, 2007, and the beginning of 2008 did to us! 

..HOWEVER, sales volume actually started to recover by 1992…and guess what?

as the pessimist, bloodied market started to finally realize how horrible it all was and median home prices started to to go down, sales volume started to make a comeback because of all the bargains on the market..and guess who started to make money again?….flippers!  As early as 1993 flipping got fun again!  (I wasn’t in the market but I have talked to no fewer than 20 ole pros).

But what about foreclosures??!!!…..aha, foreclosures escalated from 1994 to a climax and all time record (before 2008 ) at 70,000.  With all those foreclosures surely unsold inventory skyrocketed, right?….NOPE, buyers came in with such avengance they literally bought these foreclosures as fast as they hit the market, and unsold inventory actually fell!….hmmmm……we’ve had 4 consecutive months of falling inventory DESPITE exploding foreclosures, sound familiar?

So, to recap, it couldn’t get simpler, if buyers are buying, you can flip, period.  The more sales volume increases and the faster the inventory drops, the closer we are to recovery.

I’m telling you, buyers entering the market is a very strong indicator.  Will the market turn around you ask?….depends on your definition of market, if you mean prices (especially median), probably not, if you mean volume and activity, (which is MY definition of the market because I really don’t care what prices are if I can flip it for a profit and I know someone will buy it), then Hell Ya!!  …….Time to get in the game guys, the indisputable fact is that buyers are increasing!!!

Woops almost forgot the article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080818/ap_on_bi_ge/california_homes_4

Be Happy and Prosper,

Kurtis

 

http://www.FarBelowMarket.com

http://www.FlipForeclosuresForProfit.com

 

 

 

 

 

Bank Foreclosure Buying Tip #3

August 10, 2008

If you’ve read most of our blog posts/articles in the past, you know that I have described the relationship between bank brokers (the Realtors that list the bank foreclosures), and the asset managers that represent the banks as a dysfunctional.

Well, we have seen the nature of these relationships evolve somewhat over the past year, probably out of necessity.  Whereas before, brokers had almost no say about what offers the banks should accept (the banks relied on third party Broker Price Opinions to determine selling price, rather than listen to the local brokers), we have seen a shift here.

Namely, we started noticing a pattern emerge where we saw some of the best deals were consistently with one broker over others.  After talking to a lot of different brokers about this, we have learned that there has developed some leeway in that certain asset managers ARE listening to their brokers, and it is has now having a bearing on what kind of deals we as investors can get.

In other words, some banks are listening up, and when the local Realtor says, “You need to dump this dog”, they are starting to listen and follow this advice.  The operative word is here “some” banks!  So if you do your homework and talk to these local REO Realtors, you may find that one may simply have better deals than the REO broker down the street…this is HUGE.

    …FIND THE BROKERS WITH THE BEST DEALS AND FOCUS IN ON THEIR INVENTORY.

What’s the best way to do this?…..VALUES, VALUES, VALUES….KNOW THY VALUES!

We say it over and over again, know a smaller area like the back of your hand so that when you see deals you know immediately and you can be first.  Same goes with buying Tip#1 and Tip#2…so actually knowing your values should probably be a tip all in itself…hmm, maybe I’ll change it…….be happy and prosper…K

 

Kurtis and CIndy Squyres

http://www.FarBelowMarket.com
http://www.FlipForeclosuresForProfit.com

Bank Foreclosure Buying Tip #2

August 10, 2008

…Here’s another BIG tip we figured out from trial and error (and a little help from our broker friends)-

        …ALWAYS COUNTER THE BANK’S COUNTER!

3 REO brokers have now told us this, and it works. Just don’t forget from “Buying Tip #1″ you need to be in the ballpark before this tip applies…here’s an example:

Property worth about $180,000 fixed up.  It’s boarded up and in bad shape, offered at $139,000 for months and not moving.  After a few little insignificant price drops of $5,000 or $6,000, they drop it all the way to $90,000-

          …there’s your cue, DO NOT HESITATE. 

You offer $70,000.  Bank counters at $85,000- your action?…counter back at either same price of $70,000, or throw a token $1,000 for a counter of $71,000…stick to you guns – they will most likely take it!

**  By the way, along the same lines rather than counter, the bank will often come back and request your “Highest and Best Price (because of course they have “multiple offers”…same principle, stick to your guns! the “multiple offers” are usually very unqualifed buyers).

       …banks try to discourage low offers with various techniques, but they can’t stop the inevitable.

…so stay diligent when making offers or you’ll get discouraged and quit when the bank may be closer in price than you think. Again, they are desperate and using all kinds of goofy tactics they must all learn at the
same industry conferences…our goal is to learn their playbook.

If they barely budge off their price the first time and you know the property is a dog (doesn’t apply as much to a perfect 4/2 in a good neighborhood), don’t fall for it!….the tide continues to turn every day, so stay relentless in your offer making.

REO Tip#2- Always counter the counter once, even if they counter at closeto full price.  This especially applies to the big “REOs auctions”…Bruce Norris offered on six properties- he was outbid on 3, and was the highest bidder on 3.  The bank originally rejected his offers, then they countered tens of thousands higher.  Bruce stuck to his guns and didn’t come up a penny…guess what?…yup, they took ‘em anyway.

Be Happy and Prosper!

Kurtis and Cindy Squyres

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kurtis and Cindy Squyres
http://www.FarBelowMarket.com
http://www.FlipForeclosuresForProfit.com

Bank Foreclosure Buying Tip #1

August 10, 2008

We’ve now made hundreds of bank offers- we began this strategy (not including the 1990’s) in December 2006).

In the beginning, we managed to make some mistakes either by a) spending hours barking up the wrong trees, or b) writing offers incorrectly so that we managed to “displease” (mild understatement) not just one bank representative.

You would think that a property that is completely vandalized, condemned by the city, has broken windows, and has been on the market for 120 days might be a shoe in. NOPE. Trust us, we spent HOURS chasing these.

We finally realized that a bank is not a person, and has to rely on policies and procedures (i.e. won’t drop price more than 10% until it’s been on the market 30 days, 60 days, or whatever- this is just an example all banks and asset managers are different).

The sooner you memorize and learn these four words, the faster you will make money and with less effort:

                                          …BANKS ARE NOT RATIONAL!

95% of your chance of nailing a scorching deal comes down to one thing.

This one thing is the starting listing price. If you can nail a property out of the gates that is within 10%-15% of your target price, you are most likely home free. Sound easy? Not quite, simple yes, easy no.

You see, the lending institutions are overwhelmed with properties they have to quickly find value for and liquidate. They have no efficient way to do this, and must rely on third party “freelancers” who charge a fee to do what is called a Broker’s Price Opinion (BPO). The woefully understaffed and cash strapped banks have to review these BPOs and come up with a listing price. Some of the banks even outsource value reviews overseas!

Almost always the prices are too high, the bank would rather err on the upside and then drop the price. But sometimes, they come out way too low. This is rare but if you are on top of it and offer fast, the deal is most
likely yours. The other golden time to strike is following a massive price reduction on the property ($30,000 or more).  This is why we probably spend 80% of our time studying values.  These 3 words will also make you money:  KNOW YOUR VALUES. 

      …that’s why we advocate mastering a smaller area over trying to work an entire city.

Knowing values and being the first to make an offer on a bank owned property that comes out too low or following a massive price reduction is the NUMERO UNO method of landing a steal from the bank.  (Lowballing a property out of the blue almost never works, even if it is in bad shape).

Be Happy and Prosper

Kurtis and Cindy Squyres
FarBelowMarket.com

 

http://www.FarBelowMarket.com
http://www.FlipForeclosuresForProfit.com

Kurtis and Cindy Squyres

Buy Repos Like A Pro

August 10, 2008

I have written about the cycle and when and what to buy.  I haven’t written enough about the nitty gritty “real world” stuff that no one tells you.  So I am taking a break from academia, and explaining the, maybe a little controversial, steps to take to get to buying some incredible repo deals.

I’ve already repeatedly made my case why lender owned inventory (REOs, repos, foreclosures) is easily the best game in town.  Preforeclosures, direct mail, signs, newspaper ads may still work, but you are going to get masses of motivated sellers ringing your phone off the hook- that owe more than what you are even willing to pay.  Do you want to spend your time mucking through upside down properties, or do you want to get busy writing offers to the most motivated sellers in decades who have nothing but free and clear houses?…okay, ’nuff said, I’ll move on.

I still get asked if we buy directly from the banks.  The answer is “No”.  Basically, after the foreclosure sale, the property becomes the lender’s property, and the lender has to sell it just like most everyone else, with a Realtor. 

OK, so here’s what you need: 

1) the location of the foreclosures,

2) property specific info (how to see the interior, is it still on the market, what’s the sticker price)

3) comparable data, how long are they taking to sell, what are they selling for (ESPECIALLY if you are flipping). If you aren’t then it’s still good to know, but general area info becomes more important. 

4) A good way to estimate repairs

5) Finally, if you aren’t licensed, you have to decide who will represent you when you make your offer, the bank’s Realtor, or you’re own.  Unfortunately, you can’t just “make an offer” yourself.

1) Where are the repos?  You can get a list from any agent.  Not the best choice, here’s why: they will miss some, or many.  They basically put “REO” and “bank owned” into the keyword search.  However, they will usually forget one like, “corporate owned”, or it will be misspelled in the listing so it won’t find it, or even worse they will just put “foreclosure”, which will pull up all the short sales.

Use your own foreclosure list.  It is invaluable.  There are a few to check into (Retran, County Records Research, Redloc), but we use Foreclosure Radar and think it is the best we’ve ever seen if you are in California. 

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/go.php?w=home&p=farbelow&a=BG3
If you are outside of California, I recommend the foreclosure data that has been in business the longest because they take their data directly from the county- do not use FREE foreclosure lists, they are worthless…(you can play with this for a week free), go here:
<I will have it up by tomorrow>

Another reason for this is that you will burn an agent out if you have to keep calling them.  Maybe it’s just me, I like to rely on agents as little as possible.  Pick up a copy of Microsoft Streets and Trips.  You export the foreclosures from Radar right into MS and it will map the fastest possible route to drive ALL of them.  I love it.  I will exact instructions how to do this on YouTube by February….in the meantime use a Thomas Guide or your GPS navi system.

2) Here is the bottom line, you need INFORMATION.  Information that can only be found on the MLS.  Unfortunately, you are not supposed to have direct access to the MLS if you are not licensed.  If you are looking to pick up a couple good investments for your portfolio, you should be able to read the rest of this and be off to the races.  If you are looking to make this your career, YOU NEED MLS.  No one can tell you differently…this is 80% of the reason I went and got licensed.

Partner up with a friendly agent, broker, or appraiser so you can milk their time helping you access information in return for letting that licensed individual write offers for you.  Also, if you know an agent, but they aren’t local,  there is access called a reciprocal log on designed for agents that are out-of-area.  It allows them to look at comps and do everything the normal MLS does except put properties into the system. Even better, just get an agent’s license!  It’s not as involved as you think, an open book online exam, a few days studying, and then an exam.  Requirements vary, but look into it…either way you are handicapped without it. 

Okay, property specific info- this is where you have to make the call between using your own agent or the bank’s Realtor.  I have always said to use your own agent in the past.  I have changed my tune a little bit in recent months. 

Now, be very clear, this broker legally represents the bank.  His or her loyalties are to the bank, and they have a fiduciary responsibility to act on their behalf on every way possible that is not unethical or illegal. 

…First, to understand what motivates the bank’s Realtor, you need to know how they get paid…

Typically, the seller will pay a 6% commission to their agent for selling their house (I think if your seller is a bank, you get less).  The agent puts all the information in the MLS and puts a “For Sale” sign in the front yard.  Ideally, a buyer will drive by, call the phone number, and the agent (Realtor, same thing) will show them the property and write an offer for them.  The deal closes, and the agent gets 6%.  This is known as “double ending it” because the agent got the deal from the seller AND found the buyer.

Now, if another agent drives by, or finds the property on the MLS and has an interested client who is a buyer, then they will show the property, and handle all negotiations and communication with the seller’s agent.  This is called “bringing a buyer”. 

And now the buyer’s agent and the seller’s agent split the commission 3% and 3%.

Why then, would you ever have the bank broker write your offer instead of your own rep when it costs you nothing?

Here’s why.  After talking to the bank brokers every day for a year now, we’ve come to learn that they EXHAUSTED.  The banks kick them around like dogs.  The banks don’t listen to their recommendations, the brokers have to clean up the properties at their own expense and fight to get reimbursed.  Break ins, vandalism, are all the broker’s responsibility. 

Worst of all, they deal with flaky buyers all day that demand the moon and the stars and don’t perform. 

They are really underappreciated.  Sorry, but this is a nightmare job – but guess what, these warriors control the inventory, and they are desperate to move it.

They want to move inventory as bad as you want to get a deal.  In this regard they can be considered a partner.  And what we’ve found, since we buy a LOT, close FAST, and we make their lives EASY, they are starting to return the favor to us in spades. 

We didn’t get off to a great start, but we’ve come to understand each other better…I think it is the beginning of a beautiful relationship.

Be warned, they are very intolerant of mistakes and buyers who don’t know what they are doing.  If you call them and think you will get special treatment because your are prequalified with Washington Mutual, you won’t. 

There is only one way to deal with them, and that is to sound like you know what you are doing, know what you want, and be a strong buyer.  Here is exactly what you need to say if you are going to go direct to them.  Write this down and use it when you are in front of a foreclosure (the bank’s brokers are always the ones on the sign):

“Hi.  This is Ivan Investor and I am in front of you property on Elm.  I AM NOT REPRESENTED BY AN AGENT.  I am looking to buy 11 investment properties this year (doesn’t “11″ sound better than some random even number?) , I am a cash buyer (even if you don’t intend to pay full cash because hard money acts the same way, you are ALWAYS a cash buyer).  I have proof of funds, a large deposit, and I can close quickly.”

This will turn a real grouch into a lamb very quickly.  Follow up with, “I would like to know how to see this property”. 

<Now, I would say you need at least $60k bare minimum available liquid cash.  If you don’t, then you need a money partner.  Sorry, those are the facts with repos.  “No money down” DOES NOT WORK HERE.  Banks do not “carry”.  If you ask a question like that you will hear a dial tone.  You can use hard money, but these lenders are tight right now, and they want to see that you have at least some cash of your own.>   

Here is the downside of going straight to the broker.  Do not expect customer service.  Do not expect them to invite you to the office over coffee and talk about your wants and needs.  Do not expect them to even meet you at the property.  Give them a lot of leeway, they are buried…HOWEVER, you are still a customer and you are helping them, so there are bare minimum you have the right to demand if they want to sell the darned things. Don’t let them intimidate you. 

You have a right to say, “please provide a comprehensive comp list for this area or subdivision”.  Don’t be afraid to tell them up front, “I’m not going call you repeatedly, I just want a good CMA report so I can understand value before I pay CASH for your listings”.  If they feel you are a good buyer, you are not wishy washy, they should do that for you, especially because they are “double ending” it.

OK, so you are at the property, here is what will most likely happen, the bank broker will give you the lockbox combination so you can help yourself into the house.  Now, they are technically probably not supposed to do this, but the reality of the matter is they don’t even come close to having the resources to go physically let you in…two, the property is usually trashed so what are you going to do? Steal the dead cockroaches and punch a hole in the drywall that already looks like swiss cheese?  This is just real world stuff. 

(Btw, you won’t see those fancy supra lock-boxes with infrared latches on REOs, they are too expensive, and there are too many REOs.)

Now, the alternative to this is to use your own agent.  The advantage is that they will be much more likely to sit down, get you as many comps as you like, sit down and talk about your wants and needs.  You will get more mileage as far as pulling comps, looking for REOs you might have missed, do your laundry, etc…and don’t forget more MLS exposure.

The thing to watch out for is timid buyer’s agents who are embarrassed to lowball.  If they seem squeamish dump them right away.  In fact make that your first question, “do you have a problem lowballing?”  The offers we write for your ourselves are ridiculous and embarrassing.  If it doesn’t make your face feel warm, it’s not low enough.  If you get an acceptance on your first offer, it’s too high.

IMPORTANT: It’s common sense, but don’t find an agent to show you properties, get you comps, or give you combinations and then go and call the bank broker and let them write the offer for you.  It happens all the time to buyer’s agents and it’s a tragedy.  It is not fair. 

…For the best of both worlds, the way to handle it if you are getting help from your own agent, but that can’t be there with you every minute (or you don’t even want them tagging along, you just want comp/MLS help) is to go ahead and go hunting on your own.

Call the bank broker, repeat the exact same statement above, but leave out the part about not having an agent.  Go ahead and say, “I have an agent, but I intend to buy a lot and they can’t be with me as much as I’d like”.  The broker will still be thrilled you are a strong buyer, and should still give you the combos even though they get half of the commission; half of something is better than all of nothing…plus they REALLY want to move the stuff (they’d probably move some of it for free).

There is a lot more I have to say but this entry is becoming too long, so I’ll continue next time about making a good offer.  We ask for repair credits…..it’s kind of fun to watch the bank broker’s head spin around like The Exorcist……………..Be Happy and Prosper.

Kurtis
http://www.FarBelowMarket.com

Subprime Meltdown

August 10, 2008

I’m sure you know by now there is a major crisis in the mortgage industry, but if you don’t really know what the fuss is about other than it’s something bad, here is a layman’s explanation in plain English of what the HELOC is going on.

What Exactly Are Subprime Loans?

First, what is a subprime loan? Wikipedia defines subprime debt as loans to borrowers “who do not qualify for the best market interest rates because of deficient credit history”.

Why would a lender ever want to lend to such a cad?

The answer is simple, When real estate is hot, it doesn’t matter if the borrower gets behind on payments. Why? Since the house is appreciating, the borrowers can simply borrow more by refinancing or getting a second mortgage (even with a record of late payments), OR, the borrowers can sell it very quickly and the lender will get paid off then.

Even if the borrower becomes unable to physically refinance or sell (serious accident, drug problem, deceased with no heirs, etc) and the property goes to foreclosure sale (extremely rare in good markets), investors swarm over the foreclosure sales like sharks in a feeding frenzy to buy the property and the lender gets paid in full.

…this is why 2005 saw one of the lowest foreclosure rates in history for California

…After a few years of making big bucks (really big bucks) in subprime, all the lenders jumped on the bandwagon (read: greed).

This created an “upward spiral” because people who would never qualify for a house were getting approved, which increases demand for houses which causes values to skyrocket, which protects the lenders, allowing then make even more loans……and so on and so on and so on.

Final Answer: 1) There is virtually NO risk (as long as the market is hot!) for the lender because of the above reasons, 2) they get to charge very high fees and interest because the borrower has spotty income or credit.

How exactly does a mortgage company make money?

As the starting point, let’s look at the journey of a typical mortgage.

John and Mary wish to buy a house, so they go to a local lender/mortgage company or broker. A wholesale lender funds and closes the loan, and the borrowers make their monthly payment to this lender.

The loan is barely originated when the mortgage company sells it like a hot potato to replace the money they just lent out so they can lend the money out on another mortgage. They do this over and over.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Remember how we just said that these subprime loans were returning incredible rates of return and seemed to never go bad because the market kept going up like it would never stop?

..Well, the guys who wear pinstripe suits and work on Wall Street aren’t going to let those kind of returns get by them! Huge investment companies that create investment funds (mutual funds, insurance products, 401(k) plans, etc. – the kind of stuff we’re supposed to invest in for retirement) buy up (sort of, you’ll see) all those mortgages. This is called the “secondary market” for mortgages.

However, can you imagine billion dollar companies trying to buy little $250,000 mortgages and keep track of them? That would be like going to the bank to put $10,000 in savings and having to put $50 in 200 different accounts all with different interest and maturity dates!…it would be impossible!

So, publicly owned (not government) companies called Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy these mortgages and bundle them up into big giant mortgages called mortgage pools. These pools usually contain $50 million dollars worth of mortgages in them.

Then, they sell what amounts to big million dollar “I.O.U.s” to those Wall Street guys, and the mortgages are the collateral (these are called mortgage backed securities). Wall Street can then buy, sell, and trade those securities easily, just like a stock.

This makes it possible for big financial companies to invest in (not actually buy- but it amounts to the same thing) billions of dollars worth of mortgages, and that helps us because the competition for our mortgages keep our rates low. Mae and Mac make it possible for the mortgage companies to quickly and easily sell the mortgages off so they can make new ones, and this is a good thing.

Why Then Are Our Mortgage Payments Made To The Mortgage Companies?

That’s because these mortgage companies are actually just servicing (collecting the money and keeping track of payments after they sell them). They really don’t own them anymore (unless they got stuck with it after the meltdown and the secondary market turned its back on them).

What Happens When The Market Finally Stops Going Up? (scary music)

All the factors previously mentioned that made subprime loans “safe” no longer apply. Now, John and Mary cannot take more money out of the house, they can no longer sell quickly, AND if it goes to the foreclosure auction investors are no longer interested. When investors don’t show up to the foreclosure auction, the lender now gets the property back.

In Southern California in 2005, there were 3,000 foreclosure sales, almost none went back to the bank. In 2007, there are estimated over 50,000 foreclosure sales, and MOST of them will go to the bank. (100,000 in 2008?). See a chart of foreclosure sales in Southern Cal by year here:

http://farbelowmarket.com/trustees-deeds.asp

Can you imagine the losses all those Wall Street investors incurred buying billions of dollars worth of those I.O.U.s when the payments stop coming and the mortgages that back them up are becoming worthless?

Why Are So Many People Defaulting On Their Loans And Losing Them To Foreclosure?

Let us count the ways:

John and Mary lied about their income/credit history.

The mortgage companies made it easy for them to lie (i.e. “stated income” loans).

The mortgage company/broker lied about John and Mary’s income/credit history.

Low teaser rates allowed John and Mary to get a really low payment (for awhile).

John and Mary got 100% financing. Half of the first time home buyers had NO down payment…”Can’t pay, walk away”…it’s not like they put their life saving into it.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Wall Street gang all turned a blind eye because the returns were so good, kept buying the loans, which gave the mortgage companies a reason to keep making more and lying about them.

House values stopped going up – no more 2,000 square foot adobe ATM machine.

Very little demand- John and Mary can’t sell. Even with a willing buyer they owe more than what the house is worth so they can’t sell without putting money IN!

What Happens When So Many Borrowers Don’t Pay?

Yikes! (Really Scary Music)

The mortgages become almost worthless, causing massive losses to the investors.

Investors have less money to invest, not just in mortgages (but ESPECIALLY not in mortgages!).

There goes our beautiful secondary market. Wall Street slams shut their wallets.

With no secondary market, the mortgage companies can’t sell their loans to make new loans (well over 100 national lenders bankrupt in 2007).

The mortgage companies can’t make any new loans so families looking to buy a new house need very good credit, regular income, have a big down payment, and be able to PROVE it this time.

This causes the pool of qualified buyers to evaporate.

Lenders get MASSIVE numbers of properties back which they immediately must put on the market. Drastically MORE houses, drastically LESS buyers!

*Banks have no choice but to sell houses for huge discounts to free up cash * (there’s a reason this statement is in red!)

Bob and Sally, who did not go into foreclosure, have to drop the price of their house drastically to compete with the banks.

Bob and Sally don’t feel as rich, so they stop spending (called the “Wealth Effect”).

The massive real estate industry (mortgage brokers, agents, escrow company, moving companies, builders, the workers they hire, the office space demand, their staffs, etc. etc.) take a hit and have less money to pump back into the economy.

As the economy suffers, more John and Mary’s make less income and can’t make their monthly payments!…can you say, “downward spiral”?

Not Pretty. This one is by far the worst. If it wasn’t for the government pumping in over a cool billion dollars, the whole thing would have shut down. If you would have had a house in escrow in the summer of 2007 there is a very good chance it would have never closed.

This cycle feeds on itself until houses fall to such crazy low prices Bill and Steve (Palm Springs) decide real estate looks pretty good- other potential buyers that were on the fence follow suit, demand rises, euphoria ensues, and prices rage out of control as people step over each other to buy real estate (unfortunately not anytime soon!).

Then, anyone who didn’t buy early decides everyone else is getting rich, buys too late and becomes the next John and Mary!!

This may be a over simplified, but it gives you an idea of how the cycle works.

…Next, how to capitalize on what is happening and buy from these deals from the lenders as the great “unloading” begins.

Be Happy and Prosper,

Kurtis

http://www.FarBelowMarket.com

http://www.FlipForeclosuresForProfit.com

The 3 Stages Of Foreclosure

August 9, 2008

 3 Stages Of CA Foreclosure:  When And How To Score Big

 I often get questions about if we “do short sales”, need to have cash up front when we buy, can buy on terms (creative financing), along with other questions that indicate to me that many people either do not have a general understanding of which stage of foreclosure we are currently buying.

Therefore, I think it is important to give a general explanation of how foreclosure works in California (most states are very similar), define the 3 distinct stages when investors can buy, and talk about the advantages and disadvantages of each stage.

We can begin with a general definition of “foreclosure”. As defined by Wikipedia, foreclosure is a “proceeding in which a bank or other secured creditor sells or repossesses a parcel of real property due to the owner’s failure to comply with an agreement.”

There are two broad categories of how foreclosures are conducted in the United States; judicial and non-judicial. California is a non-judicial foreclosure state, which means no court action is required to foreclose on someone’s property.

Rather, a trustee (a third party entity hired by the lender) is granted the “power of sale” by the borrower when the home loan is made. This means that this trustee has the right to sell the borrower’s property and use that money to pay the lender back if the loan payments aren’t made. Therefore, there are three parties involved in this process, the lender (beneficiary), the borrower (trustor), and the trustee (described above).

Of course, the lender cannot just sell the borrower’s property out from under them without due process.

…Foreclosure consists of three distinct phases. Any investor who plans on profitting from foreclosure should have a basic understanding of the three stages…

Let’s give an example:

Let’s say John takes a loan (incidentally, even though we loosely call it a mortgage, technically in non-judicial states they are called “deeds of trust” – in judicial states they are called mortgages). John borrows from Big Bank, Inc. to buy his house. After a year or so, John loses his job and can no longer make the payments. Usually after several months of missed payments, and many attempts to call John and try to work something out, Big Bank will decide enough time has passed and initiate foreclosure.

Stage 1-Buying Preforeclosures

The first step that is required by California law is to publicly record a “Notice of Default (NOD)” with the county recorder’s office. This is a public document that must include certain information such as the address of the property in default, the loan number for the loan in default, loan balance, and amount of payments behind. The NOD is sent to the county recorder’s office to be recorded (filed in a place where anyone in the public can look it up) by Big Bank’s trustee (usually a third party company that specializes in processing foreclosures). Click here to see an example of an actual Notice of Default:

www.farbelowmarket.com/sample-nod.asp

Once this document is recorded, John is now, “in foreclosure” (also known as “preforeclosure”). Big Bank can now take no action against John for 3 months- during this time John has the full right to make up his back payments and get caught up, but the pressure is on…this could be a good place to find motivated sellers!  It’s a good chance to bail someone out of trouble and make a profit, win-win.

To find these homeowners, you can get copies of NODs by physically going to the recorder’s office. A far more convenient way to do this is to subscribe to foreclosure list company. This company compiles the information (do not confuse this with “free” or junk foreclosure lists). The data list we used for many years was from a company called County Records Research, but we switched to a brand new little known web based service called Foreclosure Radar this year. This service revolutionized the “foreclosure list” – and is more of an interactive website than a static list. Radar tracks every foreclosure in the state of California, maps it, provides and estimation of value, AND allows you to export the lists for mailings or to import into your database. It is a mindblowing website, and it is our preferred foreclosure service – it is also the least expensive. Others include Redloc, ForeclosureS.com, and Dataquick.

Here’s a link to Radar:

http://radar.infusionsoft.com/go/home/farbelow/2BLG

(Caveat: Even with the time-saving availability of list companies, I strongly encourage all investors serious about buying a foreclosure to visit the County Recorder’s Office for their county and browse foreclosures, deeds of trusts, and a treasure trove of other documents. It is the only way to really get a feel for how it works. Here is a link to all county recorder’s websites in California!:

http://co.el-dorado.ca.us/countyclerk/other_rec.html

To buy a property (it’s not a foreclosure, because the bank has NOT completed the foreclosure) at this stage, you would contact John by either sending mail, going directly to his house and knocking on the door, and/or researching John’s phone number and trying to contact him.  You are “rescuing” John from foreclosure by paying off his back payments, and buying the house for a big discount from John.

I’ve personally extensively done all three (mail, door, phone), and I can tell you mail is very low percentage because the homeowner gets buried in mail from other investors, lenders, lawyers, etc. You must mail HUGE quantities of mail to make this work, and with the constantly rising price of postage, it can get pretty costly.

Second, you could go right to the homeowner’s home and knock on the door. Most investors don’t have the guts to do it…and yes, it takes a very thick skin! The borrower is often not in the mood to talk to you – but sometimes they couldn’t be nicer and just want someone to talk to, especially someone knowledgable in the foreclosure process. Obviously rapport building ability is the most important skill here.  Still, the hit ratio compared to the amount of work doesn’t cut it for me (although a mail/door combo works better than either alone).

The system that was far and away the most superior for us from 2002-2005 was the telephone. After getting our system dialed in (no pun intended), I was able to reach a very high number of homeowners in a very short time. We managed to buy some amazing deals over that period of time.

Using online skiptracing services, the same services that collection agencies use (Accurint, Merlin), we would “track down” the homeowner’s phone number. Sometimes we would call neigbors, parents, even exes to find unpublished or cell phones! It was actually a very fun job, playing private eye for a living! By using the phone as leverage, we could contact far more trustors in a much shorter time than we ever could have by trying to knock on doors.

In the latter part of 2005 I noticed that it got increasingly harder to find a deal directly from a homeowner because there were fewer and fewer properties that were worth more than the loans! In 2006 it became VERY difficult, I was literally running out of homeowners to call. I increased my target area to three counties and I was still running out – I would literally sit there not sure what to do next! By the end of 2006 I knew our goose would be cooked if we didn’t change our approach.

There are a number of very well known “gurus” out there getting rich selling materials and bootcamps on how to make money buying from people in foreclosure.  This leads me to believe they are not in the actual arena.

It’s a great stage to work, I did little but that for 5 years; we mailed every letter out there, knocked hundreds of doors, and called (or attempted) to call thousands of homeowners.

It worked great up until about a year and a half ago. I’m not saying that a great deal can’t be found, but I am saying that landing these kind of deals SYSTEMATICALLY AND REPEATEDLY when investors and lenders are swarming over the extremely few homeowners with equity…well, just do the math.  If anyone out there is currently having success actually buying preforeclosures on a regular basis in this market (I am referring to So. Cal. only), I would love to know what I’m missing.

PROS

Terms, terms, terms!! With a couple thousand dollars for a deposit, we would have the owner deed the house to us right at the “kitchen table”. The house would usually have over $80,000 in equity. We would give them a promissory note for the rest and immediately take out a hard money loan for all our rehab costs! These weren’t “no money down” deals, they were “get $30,000 in your pocket along with house that is $80k-$100k below market” deals! It doesn’t get much better than that! When we sold the house, the homeowner would then get the rest of their money we owed them. Why would they agree to such terms?…because the foreclosure sale was usually within 3-4 days of our meeting.

Dealing directly with the seller - It is almost always easier to get screaming deals from seller then from brokers representing the sellers. It is easier to ascertain the seller’s real hot buttons, build rapport, and make offers face-to-face then through an agent. I think it is also more difficult for a seller to shoot you down face to face then it is through a representative.

Extremely motivated sellers

CONS

Title issues – tax liens, judgments, child support. They are all little bonuses that come with a house someone deeds you, so you have to be careful. You really need to be good at researching title – often no time for escrow or title insurance!

Legal minefield – need special contract language when buying from people in foreclosure

5 Day Cooling Off Period -After all your work they can drop out for 5 days with no questions asked

Liability- When they find out what you sold for, they could claim being taken advantage of. The media loves to hate unscrupulous investors, but I’m willling to bet there are just as many shady sellers!

My Rating On A Scale of 1-5 In The Current Market: 1.5.

Stage 2 – Buying At The Foreclosure Auctions

After Big Bank Inc. files the NOD, they are pretty much powerless for the next 3 months. When 3 months elapses, they must then file what is called a “Notice of Trustee’s Sale” (NOS). This means that Big Bank (technically the trustee on behalf of Big Bank) can now schedule a foreclosure auction to sell the property to the highest bidder. Big Bank hopes that an investor (or many) will show up to this auction and put a bid on the property that is high enough to pay back their loan. If the bid is high enough, Big Bank will get all of their money back, the investor gets the house, and other liens will get paid off, and if there is STILL any money left over, John the homeowner will get it.

This is one of the few methods neither Cindy nor I have ever used to purchase a property. In the 1990s when it worked well we didn’t really have that kind of cash. From 2000 to 2006 we were able to get MUCH bigger discounts going directly to the homeowners, not to mention those guys are hard core professionals. You will get your lunch eaten if you don’t know what you are doing. One of their favorite games is bid all the way up to market value just to discourage newcomers! There are other “tactics” used that I just won’t go into here – suffice it to say, they are an elite group.

So, the second stage where an investor can buy a foreclosure is by being the highest bidder at the public foreclosure sales. The investor must have all cash (usually in the form of cashier’s checks) at the sale.

PROS

Huge discounts

No messy negotiating with homeowners

Very little liability if any

Big returns – with higher risk comes higher returns

Great for adrenalin junkies!

CONS

Big cash requirements

Higher risk - bidders usually can’t see the inside of the house before paying cash for it!

Title issues

Evicting the homeowners

My Rating On A Scale of 1-5 In The Current Market: 3.5 if you have the cash to spare and want extremely aggressive buying (higher risk, higher return), 4.5 if are experienced.

Stage 3 – Buying From The Bank’s Inventory

If no investors show up to the auction, title to the house is then transferred to Big Bank via a “Trustee’s Deed”. This can be confusing because the security for the loan is called a “Deed of Trust”, but they are completely different.

The property then becomes what is know as Real Estate Owned (REO), repos, foreclosures, bank properties, lender inventory, etc. The loss mitigation department then usually contacts that bank’s broker/Realtor for that area to get the house cleaned up, listed on the market, and sold.

I don’t envy today’s bank brokers. They often have to deal with the homeowners who didn’t get the memo that the house is GONE along with some other pretty harsh conditions.

They sometimes have to remove debris, overgrowth, squatters (and much worse) before they can try and sell the property. They also have to do this out of their own pockets until the banks reimburse them. The brokers don’t make any money until the property sells, which we know takes a long time in this market, and the banks are not usually realistic about price.

We slowly started making offers on bank properties towards the end of 2006. We didn’t really start hitting it hard until January 2007, and we didnt’ get really good at it until May or June. We annoyed (understatement of the year) a number of brokers because we had to come in low, and almost none of our offers were getting accepted – so this had the effect of adding paperwork to brokers who were already over burdened and very stressed out.

However, I knew from watching REOs and seeing the data that we were in for it BIG TIME, and we kept the offers coming. We learned which properties worked the best, what we could get away with asking for (credit for repairs, closing costs, etc.), and we started getting some of our offers accepted in June.

We stayed vigilant because I knew it was a MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY that the banks would become overwhelmed.

Sure enough, in August, our persistence started to pay off. We also developed relationships with the brokers (whose tune changed REAL fast when our offers started going through). Now they love us and every now and then call us BEFORE LISTING THE PROPERTIES!).

(By the way, I VERY often get asked if we can buy direct from the bank.  It used to be that you could, but I have yet to hear ONE case of someone buying from the bank- it’s become very impersonal because of institution size and because of technology).

It is our contention that this will be the place to buy for the next 3-5 years (absolutely, positively for the next 2 years).

PROS

No title issues

Can take your time and thoroughly check out the property

Currently the most motivated sellers on planet Earth

Can sometimes use conventional financing

CONS

No terms

It’s like negotiating with a black hole – even the broker usually has no idea who they are talking to.

Red tape – we’ve had offers accepted THREE times now, and it took over a month for the bank to sign the acceptance!!  We had cash, the property was dropping in value, and we couldn’t GIVE them our money! (one property was listed for $149k, and they countered us at $160k…????) they are basically a mess, but that can be a very good thing as well ; – )

 

My Rating On A Scale of 1-5 In The Current Market: 6!!

I hope this helps you have a grasp on the foreclosure game. I have found in all markets it is the best game in town. There are many avenues other than foreclosure buying i.e. “We Buy Houses” signs, direct mail to farm areas, vacant houses, etc., and we’ve bought houses with all of the above methods. But I would debate with anyone, anytime, anyplace, that the path of least resistance is where the greatest motivation to sell is, and right now that is the lending institutions.

Be Happy and Prosper,

Kurtis